Secret documents disclosing efforts by the United States, the United Kingdom, and other NATO allies to build up Ukraine's forces ahead of a new offensive against Russian troops appear to have been leaked online.
“The recent leak of classified U.S. and NATO documents on the Ukrainian military and Kiev's much-anticipated ‘spring counteroffensive’ has exposed that disunity, distrust and divergences among the U.S., the West and Ukraine are serious and keep worsening, said Chinese experts. They noted that the incident further proves that Washington is the biggest obstacle for the international community to promote a cease-fire and peace talks for the ongoing Ukraine crisis.
According to U.S. media, the U.S. Department of Justice has opened an investigation into the leak that was posted on social media in recent weeks.
CNN reported on Saturday that the investigation comes as new documents surfaced Friday covering everything from U.S. support for Ukraine to information about key U.S. allies like Israel, widening the fallout from the already alarming leak. The Pentagon on Thursday said it was looking into the matter after social media posts of apparently classified documents on the war in Ukraine had emerged.
‘They look real’, a U.S. official told CNN about the leaked documents. CNBC News also reported on Saturday that the documents that appeared online ‘are likely real’ and ‘the result of a leak’, but that some of the documents may have been altered before they were posted, a senior U.S. official said on Saturday.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a statement on Telegram that the leak is a ‘Russian information operation’ and does not reveal Kiev's ‘actual operational plans’, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
A Chinese expert on international security and intelligence who asked for anonymity told the Global Times on Sunday that ‘the leak is unlikely caused by Russian intelligence agencies, because this does not make sense’.
If Russia has obtained these classified documents, it would not post them online, because this will make Russia lose the source or sources that had provided these documents, he said. He noted that there is no reason for Russia to let its enemies know that it has obtained this intelligence, because this will also make its enemies change plans, making the hard-won military intelligence useless.
Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, said that the leaked documents expose ‘many disadvantages and shortcomings of Ukrainian military forces. This is absolutely not good news for Ukraine’.
The leak, the source of which remains unknown, reveals the U.S.' assessment of a Ukrainian military that is itself in dire straits, The New York Times reported on Saturday. The leaked material, from late February and early March but found on social media sites in recent days, outlines ‘critical shortages of air defense munitions’ and discusses ‘the gains being made by Russian troops around the eastern city of Bakhmut’.
Ukrainian presidential advisor Podolyak said the documents provided only a ‘statistical analysis of supplies, possible operational and tactical plans, as well as a large volume of fictitious information’.
Whether the leak is real or not, they have wrought damage to Kiev. Even if these documents contain fictitious information, they will damage the morale of the Ukrainian military and the confidence of Western countries in continuing to support Kiev to win the fight against Moscow. The response of the Ukrainian official shows that Kiev is nervous, and the U.S. investigation proves the incident is very serious, said experts.
If the old plan of a ‘spring counteroffensive’ cannot be executed, and the inputs from the U.S. decrease, this will further shake the determination of other NATO members in Europe to keep their support, said experts. In other words, disunity, divergence and distrust among the U.S., Ukraine and NATO have been exposed by the leak and will keep worsening, they noted.
Song said the incident will also damage ties between the U.S. and its allies around the globe. Countries that have military cooperation with the U.S. will be worried that the U.S. is unable to keep their secrets and will even spy on them and leak their secrets to the media or online, Song noted.
The New York Times reported on Saturday that the leaked intelligence reports seem to indicate that ‘the United States is also spying on Ukraine's top military and political leaders, a reflection of Washington's struggle to get a clear view of Ukraine's fighting strategies’.
‘Just like the PRISM program leaked by Edward Snowden has proved, the U.S. is spying on its allies, whether close or not, and this is how the U.S. keeps its hegemony’, Song told the Global Times on Sunday. ‘More importantly, the U.S. doubts Ukraine's determination to keep up the fight’.
Washington hopes Kiev and its NATO allies to maintain the conflict at all costs and it wants an unrealistic and costly result - a complete defeat of Russia. But maybe Ukraine, after having suffered from the huge amount of casualties without meaningful progress on the battlefield, wants to seek the possibility of a cease-fire and solve its problems with Russia via talks. This is why the U.S. is spying on Ukraine, said experts, adding that it just once again proves that Washington is the biggest obstacle for a political and peaceful solution for the crisis”. -Yang Sheng, Global Times
The presence of the leaked U.S. documents only confirms what everyone already knew that the Ukraine war is a proxy conflict against Russia by the U.S. and NATO.
But, with the Ukrainian military drained, Western supply chains strained, and NATO stockpiles of critical weapons and ammunition depleted, the war in Ukraine is gradually transitioning into a conflict in which the Russian military will enjoy a position of superiority.
And, when the supposed Ukrainian counteroffensive undoubtedly fails, NATO will most likely blame the failure on the leak.